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Jeremy Grantham Has an Even Scarier Prediction Than His Crash Call

1/27/2022

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Jeremy Grantham got the market’s attention with his “super bubble” call on U.S. stocks. Now he wants to get an even more alarming and urgent message out, one his critics may find harder to accept. 

The “Goldilocks” period of the past 25 years is ending, and the world needs to prepare for a future of inflation, slower growth and labor shortages, the renowned value investor said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview.


Barron’s Article
https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-4-percent-rule-downturn-strategy-51642806039?siteid=yhoof2
 
The Buffett Indicator
Where Are We with Market Valuations
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
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Crash the Stock Market or Stop Inflation: The Fed’s Dangerous Predicament | George Gammon

1/24/2022

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Interesting video on the tough position the Fed is in. If they sell their assets and have interest rates go up to fast there is a high risk is they miss. There are some extreme conversations on this but there seems to be a lot of head wins where to put your money.

Crash the Stock Market or Stop Inflation: The Fed's Dangerous Predicament | George Gammon 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ykh1r1aSFY
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How the yield curve is sending a recession 'signal': Jeffrey Gundlach

1/24/2022

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The Bond King Gundlach interview. He talks about Robert Shiller's noble prize winner the Shiller pe cape ratios are 35 which is double the rest of the works. Please note 8 out 10 times within 6 days the market crash’s into a recession when the yield curve inverts which means the long-term bonds pay lower rates than lower rates. This is exactly what happened in Oct 2019 and then the crash in March 2019. 

We have negative real yields of 6.8% means people are losing at least that. Europe calculates the cpi inflation for the US is 7.8%.

Those in bonds/ bond funds will get hurt and so will people in the market.
How the yield curve is sending a recession 'signal': Jeffrey Gundlach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIXlNyNABjEning
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Forecasting Equity Returns Using the CAPE Ratio

1/24/2022

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Introduction Following a strong year for benchmark indices in 2021, we think speculation and inflation are two key narratives, amongst many, that may impact markets in 2022. Prof. Shiller views the current environment as being somewhat like the Roaring Twenties in which, on the tail end of the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza pandemic, there were frenetic celebrations, spending sprees, and a “carnival of extravagance unheard of in history” – and yet ultimately, a U.S. stock market priced at its lowest level in history by December 1920.

The stock market during most of the Roaring Twenties was the biggest bull stock market in US history when you factor in inflation. Prof. Shiller calculates that the real total return for the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index (an S&P 500 predecessor), including dividends, from September 1919 to September 1929, averaged 20% a year. That implies a sixfold increase in real value over the decade. At the end, however, the index dropped 77% from September 1929 to June 1932.

Today, the annualized returns for the S&P Price Return Index are 14% over the last decade. Not as spectacular but certainly solid, and we are seeing strong parallels between the Roaring Twenties and the environment today. In the 1920s there was a sharp rise in trades by inexperienced retail investors, a surge in technological innovation and new mass media. The world entered homes electronically with radio, giving people an immediate sense of the possibility of new technologies and access to a global narrative about financial success. This is not dissimilar today as we gingerly enter a post-COVID world filled with latest technologies such as crypto coins, artificial intelligence, NFTs and the metaverse. 


Continue Reading
https://s3.amazonaws.com/bca2.0/ANX21404-Shiller-Quarterly-Market-Forecast.pdf
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The 4% Rule Might Not Work, This Retirement Expert Says. Here’s His Strategy for a Downturn.

1/24/2022

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Economist Wade Pfau has been thinking about retirement since he was in 20s. But not just his own retirement. 
Pfau started studying Social Security for his dissertation while getting his Ph.D. at Princeton University in the early 2000s. At the time, Republicans wanted to divert part of the Social Security payroll tax into a 401(k)-style savings plan. Pfau concluded it might supply sufficient retirement income for retirees—but only if markets cooperated. 

Today, Pfau is a professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services, a private college that trains financial professionals. His most recent book, “Retirement Planning Guidebook,” was published in September.

While many retirees are banking on a continuing rise in stocks to keep their portfolios growing, Pfau worries that markets will plunge and imperil this “overly optimistic” approach. He has embraced oft-criticized insurance products like variable annuities and whole-life insurance that will hold their value even if stocks crash, and he has done consulting work for insurers. He wrote another book, “Reverse Mortgages: How to Use Reverse Mortgages to Secure Your Retirement,” because these loans also can be used as “buffer assets” during market meltdowns.


Continue Reading
​https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-4-percent-rule-downturn-strategy-51642806039?mod=barronsgooglenews

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The content of the Birdseye Financial website, email, fax, social media, text messages, online meetings, and phone calls are for educational purposes only. Any material and its attachments, links, downloads, and/or any emails from Birdseye Financial employees/contractors are not intended to provide legal or tax advice. To ensure compliance with requirements imposed by the IRS, we inform you that any U.S. federal or state tax advice contained in communication (via Website, Email, Fax, Text, Social Media, in person, or by phone) is not intended to be used, and cannot be used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding penalties under the Internal Revenue Code or (ii) promoting, marketing, or recommending to another party any transaction or matter addressed herein. Please seek the advice of appropriately licensed individuals for legal or tax advice relating to your individual situation. Birdseye Financial and its employees/contractors are not tax, legal, or investment advisors and are not operating in such a manner. Any advice you receive should be taken as non-tax, not legal, and non-investment advice and only educational in nature. Should our clients need a licensed investment advisor, we recommend LifePro Asset Management. Please know investments in the market carry an inherent element of risk. No investment in the market or strategy can guarantee a profit or prevent a loss. Any illustrations used in the sales or service process are to be considered hypothetical and for explanatory purposes only. 

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“We do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently in WA State we represent seven organizations which offer 34 products in Snohomish County and 33 products in King County and 19 products in Whatcom County. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-MEDICARE, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all your options.” All calls regarding Medicare may be recorded by phone or online and a SCOPE of appointment required by Medicare will be obtained 48 hours prior to any sales meeting to discuss plan details. (NOTE - The organizations and plans can vary by state and county, we can validate these numbers upon request.)

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  • Home
  • About
    • Welcome to Birdseye
    • Who We Are
    • Risk & Portfolio Assessment
    • Request Free Consultation
  • Strategies
    • Key Components
    • Inflation Impact
    • Rule of 100
    • Sequence of Returns
    • Volatility Buffer >
      • Volatility Buffer Webinar
    • Tax Strategies >
      • Tax Free Income
      • RMD Calculator
      • IRA RMD RULES
      • ROTH IRA
      • ROTH Conversion
      • Tax Declassified Webinar
      • Qualified Charitable Donation
      • Business Tax Credit
    • Educational Webinars >
      • Taxes Declassified
      • Top 10 IRA Mistakes
      • Taxes in Retirement
      • 3 Economic Strategies
      • Five Key Areas of Retirement
    • Educational Videos
    • Documentaries
    • Recommendations
  • Planning
    • Retirement Analysis
    • Social Security >
      • Social Security Webinar
    • Pension Maximization
    • Risk Analysis and Investments
    • LifePro Asset Management
    • Federal Benefits >
      • Federal Benefit Kit
    • WA Retirement Systems
    • Business Tax Credit >
      • Research & Development Tax Credit
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      • Resources
  • Insurance
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    • Calculators
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    • Bankrate Interest Rates
    • Rate of Return Calculations
    • Zillow Home Value
    • Slides - Intro Step >
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      • Slides - Strategy
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      • Slides - Invest
      • Slides - Buffer
      • Slides - FIA
      • Slides - Income
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      • Slides - ALL
  • Contact
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