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Jeremy Grantham Has an Even Scarier Prediction Than His Crash Call

1/27/2022

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Jeremy Grantham got the market’s attention with his “super bubble” call on U.S. stocks. Now he wants to get an even more alarming and urgent message out, one his critics may find harder to accept. 

The “Goldilocks” period of the past 25 years is ending, and the world needs to prepare for a future of inflation, slower growth and labor shortages, the renowned value investor said in a Bloomberg “Front Row” interview.


Barron’s Article
https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-4-percent-rule-downturn-strategy-51642806039?siteid=yhoof2
 
The Buffett Indicator
Where Are We with Market Valuations
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php
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Crash the Stock Market or Stop Inflation: The Fed’s Dangerous Predicament | George Gammon

1/24/2022

1 Comment

 
Interesting video on the tough position the Fed is in. If they sell their assets and have interest rates go up to fast there is a high risk is they miss. There are some extreme conversations on this but there seems to be a lot of head wins where to put your money.

Crash the Stock Market or Stop Inflation: The Fed's Dangerous Predicament | George Gammon 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ykh1r1aSFY
1 Comment

How the yield curve is sending a recession 'signal': Jeffrey Gundlach

1/24/2022

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The Bond King Gundlach interview. He talks about Robert Shiller's noble prize winner the Shiller pe cape ratios are 35 which is double the rest of the works. Please note 8 out 10 times within 6 days the market crash’s into a recession when the yield curve inverts which means the long-term bonds pay lower rates than lower rates. This is exactly what happened in Oct 2019 and then the crash in March 2019. 

We have negative real yields of 6.8% means people are losing at least that. Europe calculates the cpi inflation for the US is 7.8%.

Those in bonds/ bond funds will get hurt and so will people in the market.
How the yield curve is sending a recession 'signal': Jeffrey Gundlach
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIXlNyNABjEning
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Forecasting Equity Returns Using the CAPE Ratio

1/24/2022

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Introduction Following a strong year for benchmark indices in 2021, we think speculation and inflation are two key narratives, amongst many, that may impact markets in 2022. Prof. Shiller views the current environment as being somewhat like the Roaring Twenties in which, on the tail end of the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza pandemic, there were frenetic celebrations, spending sprees, and a “carnival of extravagance unheard of in history” – and yet ultimately, a U.S. stock market priced at its lowest level in history by December 1920.

The stock market during most of the Roaring Twenties was the biggest bull stock market in US history when you factor in inflation. Prof. Shiller calculates that the real total return for the Standard & Poor’s Composite Index (an S&P 500 predecessor), including dividends, from September 1919 to September 1929, averaged 20% a year. That implies a sixfold increase in real value over the decade. At the end, however, the index dropped 77% from September 1929 to June 1932.

Today, the annualized returns for the S&P Price Return Index are 14% over the last decade. Not as spectacular but certainly solid, and we are seeing strong parallels between the Roaring Twenties and the environment today. In the 1920s there was a sharp rise in trades by inexperienced retail investors, a surge in technological innovation and new mass media. The world entered homes electronically with radio, giving people an immediate sense of the possibility of new technologies and access to a global narrative about financial success. This is not dissimilar today as we gingerly enter a post-COVID world filled with latest technologies such as crypto coins, artificial intelligence, NFTs and the metaverse. 


Continue Reading
https://s3.amazonaws.com/bca2.0/ANX21404-Shiller-Quarterly-Market-Forecast.pdf
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The 4% Rule Might Not Work, This Retirement Expert Says. Here’s His Strategy for a Downturn.

1/24/2022

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Economist Wade Pfau has been thinking about retirement since he was in 20s. But not just his own retirement. 
Pfau started studying Social Security for his dissertation while getting his Ph.D. at Princeton University in the early 2000s. At the time, Republicans wanted to divert part of the Social Security payroll tax into a 401(k)-style savings plan. Pfau concluded it might supply sufficient retirement income for retirees—but only if markets cooperated. 

Today, Pfau is a professor of retirement income at the American College of Financial Services, a private college that trains financial professionals. His most recent book, “Retirement Planning Guidebook,” was published in September.

While many retirees are banking on a continuing rise in stocks to keep their portfolios growing, Pfau worries that markets will plunge and imperil this “overly optimistic” approach. He has embraced oft-criticized insurance products like variable annuities and whole-life insurance that will hold their value even if stocks crash, and he has done consulting work for insurers. He wrote another book, “Reverse Mortgages: How to Use Reverse Mortgages to Secure Your Retirement,” because these loans also can be used as “buffer assets” during market meltdowns.


Continue Reading
​https://www.barrons.com/articles/retirement-4-percent-rule-downturn-strategy-51642806039?mod=barronsgooglenews

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The information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to Birdseye Financial Group and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete, or timely. Any information herein about providers, speakers, and services does not constitute a recommendation or endorsement. This material is not to be distributed without the express written consent of Birdseye Financial. Regarding your financial situation, you should consult with a financial professional before acting on specific actions or suggestions given. For legal or tax advice, you should contact your qualified attorney or CPA. Insurance and tax planning services are offered through Birdseye Financial. Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No market investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss during declining values. ​Fiduciary Investment Advisory Services are offered through Simplicity Asset Management, an SEC-Registered Investment Advisor. Registration does not denote any level of skill or qualification.

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  • Home
  • About
    • Who We Are >
      • Explore More
    • Corbin Lindsey, Advisor
    • Our Reviews
    • Get Started
    • Risk & Portfolio Assessment
    • Request Free Consultation
  • Strategies
    • Key Components
    • Sequence of Returns
    • Volatility Buffer >
      • Volatility Buffer Webinar
    • Tax Strategies >
      • Tax Free Income
      • RMD Calculator
      • IRA RMD RULES
      • ROTH IRA
      • ROTH Conversion
      • Tax Declassified Webinar
      • Qualified Charitable Donation
      • Business Tax Credit
    • Inflation Impact
    • Educational Videos >
      • Documentaries
      • Educational Webinars >
        • Taxes Declassified
        • Top 10 IRA Mistakes
        • Taxes in Retirement
        • 3 Economic Strategies
        • Five Key Areas of Retirement
    • Recommendations >
      • ROTH Conversions
      • Volatility Buffer
      • Tax-Free Income
      • Wealth Transfer
    • Premium Finance
  • Planning
    • Retirement Analysis >
      • RA Sample
    • Social Security >
      • Social Security Webinar
    • Pension Maximization
    • Risk Analysis and Investments
    • LifePro Asset Management >
      • Questionnaire
    • Estate Planning
    • Federal Benefits >
      • Federal Benefit Kit
    • WA Retirement Systems
    • Boeing Retirement >
      • Boeing Webinar
      • Boeing Download
      • Boeing Calendar
      • Boeing Retirement
    • Business Planning >
      • Tax Free Multiplier
      • Business Tax Credit >
        • Resources
      • Employee Retention Tax Credit
      • Research & Development Tax Credit
  • Insurance
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      • Medicare A&B
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    • Long-Term Care
    • Life Insurance >
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      • Dead Doctors Don't Lie
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    • Rate of Return Calculations
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    • Rate our Service
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