Blog Archives - BIRDSEYE FINANCIAL SERVICES (360) 722-7889

BIRDSEYE FINANCIAL SERVICES (360) 722-7889

What is happening to the Economy - Pensions, 401K and more. Listen to many viewpoints from top advisors...

2/25/2022

U.S. Stock Market: Why You Should Move With Caution Despite Upside Potential

2/11/2022

Jan. 05, 2022 8:04 AM ET
Summary

Without much doubt, the stock market in the United States is extremely overvalued.
However, when looking at the bond market, housing, initial unemployment claims, consumer sentiment or the ISM purchasing manager index, a recession seems not likely in 2022.

Nevertheless, we should move with extreme caution - even if stocks should move higher in 2022, a huge crash will occur

In December 2019, I published an article in which I argued, that the economy was completely detached from the stock market - especially in the United States. About 2.5 months later, the brutal 5-week crash and recession followed. I am referring to this article not because I predicted the stock market crash and recession (I published articles before warning about high stock market valuations), but due to the structure of this article. I used several metrics and in the following article I want to use the same metrics again and try to determine where we are in the cycle.
Valuation

About 2 years after the above-mentioned article, the stock market is even more detached from the economy as many stocks are trading for even higher prices, but the economy (or at least several sectors) must deal with the consequences of the last recession. And even when acknowledging, that we are always dealing with probabilities and should avoid words like "certain" or "without any doubt", I am as certain as I can be, that the US stock market is extremely overvalued.
READ MORE

What's a Crash? What's a Correction?

2/1/2022

Brett explains what a market crash is vs. what a market correction is. He also talks about a new graph he discovered called "The stock price to annual sales ratio" which plots how a companies stock price correlates to their annual sales, and why we need to pay attention to these ratios. For more messages on this podcast go to PODCAST

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