Jan. 05, 2022 8:04 AM ET
In December 2019, I published an article in which I argued, that the economy was completely detached from the stock market - especially in the United States. About 2.5 months later, the brutal 5-week crash and recession followed. I am referring to this article not because I predicted the stock market crash and recession (I published articles before warning about high stock market valuations), but due to the structure of this article. I used several metrics and in the following article I want to use the same metrics again and try to determine where we are in the cycle.
About 2 years after the above-mentioned article, the stock market is even more detached from the economy as many stocks are trading for even higher prices, but the economy (or at least several sectors) must deal with the consequences of the last recession. And even when acknowledging, that we are always dealing with probabilities and should avoid words like "certain" or "without any doubt", I am as certain as I can be, that the US stock market is extremely overvalued.